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The good advice being offered by folks on how to self-nourish the spirit and maintain a positive attitude is sorely needed during the crisis in which we now find ourselves, as is the call to look beyond personal need and fear and reach out to our brethren to make sure they’re ok and share our concern for their welfare.

But we should also be realistic about what we are facing and muster the courage to prepare ourselves for what will in all likelihood become a new normal where the conditions under which we have become accustomed to living and have taken for granted to up to now will be forever altered going forward.

This morning, as I was making my morning coffee while perusing the NYT on my iPad, I came across a column written by Paul Krugman making a case for the notion that Republicans leaders have demonstrated time and time again their ineptitude when it comes to fiscal policy.  As I read on, the realization slowly dawned on me that life-as-we-know-it has now become a thing of the past. It wasn’t the article in particular that triggered this insight, nor was it the incredibly inept response of the trump administration to the epidemic, especially and crucially early in the virus’s advance, when a responsible and well thought-out approach might have lessened the scope of the disaster we all now face. I believe it was the combined effect of those things with the growing list of measures being undertaken by state and local government officials, in consultation with public health officials, that led me to my realization.

It doesn’t take a genius to foresee how these developments will bring indelible change—signs of this are already beginning to appear—to all our lives going forward, nor is it any stretch of the imagination to envision the lives that will likely be lost, the jobs that will  disappear, the businesses that will not survive and the foreclosures and evictions that will follow as a natural consequence of the inability of people who aren’t financially solvent to cover multiple months of rent or mortgage payments without an income source; the ranks of the homeless will doubtless increase thereby, which will further stretch the already anemic ability of government programs to aid them in their recovery.

The profound economic damages that will result from what many economists expect will be a serious recession, coupled with poor monetary decisions made since the last crash that have allowed massive debt to once again pile up like it did preceding the last recession, foretell a frightening scenario. With interest rates now at near zero, there’s little further they can go.

Government regulations, policies and protocols that will be lessened, suspended or waived in response to the emergency will, if history is any indicator, not be reinstated soon; some may never be. For the foreseeable future, concerns about the effects of climate change will lose prominence just when they ought to be taken more seriously.

These effects will certainly endure longer than the remaining time most of those in my age bracket (70s) have left on this planet and will likely be felt by those remaining for a generation or more; our old, familiar landscape will be forever altered thereby. The belief that things will soon return to normal is based on naught but wishful thinking and is mythical at best.

I realize these are sobering predictions, and I hope I’m wrong about them, but if they prove true, a clear-eyed peek around the corner should hopefully lessen the surprise and shock should they come to pass.

Welcome to the new normal!

Tim Konrad